A piece I published on the East Asia Forum. “If we are indeed at an ‘inflection point’, then all states — including China — need to act responsibly to ensure that the change is constructive. For the United States, it might be helpful to acknowledge that its rebalancing act to Asia came on too fast and too strong, and that pushing forward with its web of regional military alliances is counterproductive to the overall theme of eventual cooperation.”
A piece I wrote for TheDiplomat.com, examining the link between America’s recent government shut-down, domestic economic issues in Asia, and regional territorial disputes.
My analysis of the South China Sea dispute in the Fall 2013 edition of Global Asia. What is actually at stake, and to what extent is nationalism to blame? These are some of the questions I examine.
Analysis I provided for the International Peace Institute’s Global Observatory. These are my “key conclusions” from the piece:
- Stakeholders can be cautiously optimistic about managing the dispute in such a way that overall economic and political cooperation is minimally disrupted, but the behavior of China and the United States is central to the final outcome.
- Management of the dispute involves concerted efforts in strengthening these areas: respect for international law, economic cooperation, domestic policies, transparency in diplomacy, and effective military engagement.
- ASEAN’s ability to foster dialogue on the issue is limited by political pressure on ASEAN chairs from other countries, especially China.
- There are key steps that can be taken to help foster cooperation, including adopting a forward-looking approach that de-emphasizes the unresolvable historical claims espoused by the countries involved.
My post on CNN’s GPS blog, reflecting on my recent trip to Viet Nam, including a visit to Ly Son Island off of the central coast. I suggest that Viet Nam might gain more by ignoring, or at least quietly contesting, China’s provocations in the South China Sea area.
Avoiding an adverse outcome in the South China Sea area will depend on claimant states’ willingness to place a high priority on strategic cooperation – including on energy exploration, fishing rights, and the maintenance of open sea-lanes. My piece on Project Syndicate.
A paper I co-authored for the Asian Journal of Public Affairs that examines the role of nationalism with respect to three countries – China, the Philippines, and Viet Nam – in the South China Sea dispute. We argue that with a rising middle class and increasing pressure to attain energy resources, so too will there be increasing likelihood of conflict. The situation is relatively stable at present, but unless a means for resolving the tensions is devised, then we might increasingly expect to see more aggressive actions amongst all claimants.